A Message to the People of Russia

It has come to my attention that many of you have pick up my page, FOUNDATION, and have noticed my posts about Ukraine, among other subjects.

I would like to reach out to all of you, and offer a plea for peace.

First, you have noticed my posts about Ukraine, and their desire to join the west, of at least western Ukraine.  

I am fully aware that the people in eastern Ukraine, or at least in Donetsk and Luhansk are mostly of Russian origin and many want to become part of Russia, or at least ally with them.  In this issue, I support both the East and the West.

I know Crimea was always Russian territory until 1956, when Khrushchev, on a whim, decided to give it to Ukraine as a gift, against the will of the Crimean people.  I know that after all these years, these people wanted to remain Russian and return to Russia’s fold.

I am also aware of the majority of the people in eastern Ukraine, or at least in the two easternmost provinces, also want to return to Russia’s fold, either as part of Russia, or an independent country allied with Russia.

I can sympathized with you, even support your position;  but I also support the people of western Ukraine in their desire to join the West and become a part of the European Union.  We, in the United States and Europe did not encourage them to do so, nor are we encouraging them to shun Russia, your country.  They themselves made this decision, and whether you like it or not, you have to respect them for it.  Each country must respect any desires of a neighboring country, whether the neighboring country likes it or not.  This equally applies to the U.S. in the affairs and both Canada and Mexico.

I also know that Ukraine is a cleft country, and that the eastern Ukrainians are of the Orthodox faith (religion does matter), the same as you, and that they are mostly ethnic Russian and want closer relations with you.  That also has to be respected.

What should be done is simply have a free and fair referendum in Eastern Ukraine, with international observes, for the people to decide for themselves what they want.  They can either vote 1) remain a part of Ukraine;  2) secede from Ukraine and join Russia; or 3) become an independent country, call it East Ukraine and ally with Russia.  Should they decide #2 or #3, fine.  We can live with it.  In return, Russia should let the rest of Ukraine go its own way and compensate Ukraine and its people for the land they’ve forfeited such as debt cancellation and supplying them with free natural gas from Russia for a certain number of years.

All this can, and should be achieved peacefully, with both sides having mutual respect for each other.  Ukraine and the European Union pose no threat to your country whatsoever.

What I am trying to say is that the present situation in Ukraine is not an excuse for your president, Vladimir Putin, to station troops along the Ukrainian border and threaten to invade Ukraine, even if the people of Donetsk and Luhansk desire it.  War, invasion, or any other form of hostile action is not the answer, and isn’t helping your own people any, even if you benefit by uniting the Russian people and acquiring more land.  What Putin is doing isn’t making things better for you, it’s making it worse, and he is aliening all of you from the rest of the world, at great expense to Russia itself.  

Should Putin order an invasion, you will lose more than you’ll gain, even if Russia wins militarily.  What Putin will be doing, in simple terms, is leading your country down the road to perdition, beginning with a deteriorating economy put on by sanctions, and a loss of international standing, and I know you do not want that.

Russia is a great country with a great people, having an amazing history.  Just by itself, without Ukraine, Russia is a giant landmass.  You are the largest country in the world and you have land stretching from eastern Europe all the way to the Bering Strait, along with an abundant amount of natural resources that have yet to be developed.  

If you were to develop all your resources throughout the country, can you imagine how much of an economic powerhouse you would be?  Your country and people would acquire more wealth, your standard of living would greatly increase, and you would provide intense competition for Europe, Japan, the United States, and China, without any need for the military.  Your people have great potential, and you have the ability to achieve a greatness, much more than you have already acquired throughout your entire history.

With all of this, you have no need to acquire any more land or invade any other country, and no other country wants to go to war with you.  In regard to your history, your borders today are safe.  What we all ask is to respect the sovereignty of your neighbors, as you expect them to respect yours.  Equal and mutual respect is the key, and should a problem arise, you should be able to settle it peacefully, without any need for your military.  That is all we ask.

What President Putin is doing right now isn’t helping you or Russia, it’s making your situation worse, and the world is distancing itself from you.  Should President Putin give the order to invade Ukraine, he will only make things worse for your society, and he will lead you and your country down the road to perdition;  in what ways, I don’t know, but it will happen.  What is really sad is that Putin knows this, but he doesn’t seem to care.  It hurts me very much to have to say this.

Is it worth it?  I don’t think so.  Do not allow this to happen.  Do not let Putin become like Adolf Hitler in 1939, when he invaded Poland, and I do dare to say that.  Please stand down and rejoin Europe, and the rest of the world.  I feel that by doing this, we can work together, and get through this crisis by finding a fair and peaceful solution that will be to everyone’s satisfaction.  It is only by achieving a win-win situation that we can have peace and prosperity for all.

Alastair Browne

UKRAINE - Part Four: What Should be Done to End This Crisis, Once and For All (April 15, 2014)

“Ukraine or rather Eastern Ukraine will come back in five, ten, or fifteen years.  Western Ukraine can go to Hell.”

                                                                     -A Russian General  (circa 1995)

And so, Ukraine now has its civil war.  It doesn’t matter what is happening right now, that’s just what it is.  In Eastern Ukraine, Russian-Ukrainian are occupying government buildings, building barricades, begging for Russian troops, now amassed across the border, to come in and invade.  One rumor has it that Russian agents are already in Ukraine instigating these disturbances, where, should the Ukrainian government crack down, Russia will have the perfect excuse to come in and invade to protect the Russian people living there.  Putin will find any excuse to do whatever he wants anyway, and he knows he can get away with it because the rest of the world isn’t doing much to protect Ukraine, save imposing sanctions.  

As of the present moment, the Ukrainian government is cracking down on its dissenters.  Who knows what may happen next.

I have stated, from Samuel Huntington’s book, “A Clash of Civilizations,” that Ukraine is a cleft country.  Western Ukraine is composed mostly of ethnic Ukrainians, who desire to join the European Union and the West in general.  Eastern Ukraine is composed of a mixture of Russians and Ukrainians, with the two easternmost provinces, Luhansk and Donetsk, with a majority Russian population, and a few other cities outside these two provinces, such as Kharkiv, having enough of its Russian populace to stir up some kind of trouble.  However, it is in Luhansk and Donetsk where the major crisis looms.

So there we have it.  Western Ukraine has found its freedom, the two provinces in Eastern Ukraine, Luhansk and Donetsk, are making life difficult for everyone else.

One thing that has to be noted is that many of these Russian Ukrainians do not want to be annexed to Russia.  They want to remain a part of Ukraine, with Ukraine maintain close Russian ties.  In other words, they want all of Ukraine to be Russia’s junior partner, under their full protection;  but it’s not going to be that way.  The Ukrainians want to break out of Russia’s orbit completely, and be free to do as they please;  i.e.  join the European Union, and as long as Putin is in power, NATO as well.

Here is what I propose.

Have Luhansk and Donetsk, and any other Eastern Ukrainian province, hold a referendum.  This referendum is to be completely fair, by secret ballot from each Ukrainian citizen, and to be supervised by international observers, including those from the United States and Europe.

This ballot is to give two choices, and no more.  These choices would be:

1. Have that province secede from Ukraine and join the Russian Federation, living under Russia’s laws and protection henceforth.
2. Remain a part of Ukraine, to live under Ukraine’s laws, and abide by any foreign policy decision Ukraine may make.                                                                

There will be NO federalizing Ukraine or any of its provinces, as Putin proposed, for that would only be to Russia’s advantage.

As a result, should the two renegade provinces, and any other connected to the Russian border vote to join Russia, they will be free to do so.

BUT, there will be a price.  

1. Russia is to cancel all debts owed by Ukraine to the Russian Federation, no exceptions.
2. To help Ukraine, Russia should supply Ukraine natural gas, free of charge, for the next five to seven years to help Ukraine get back on its feet.
3. Russia should compensate Ukraine for the land they sell to Russia (I said sell, not give or forfeit) with natural gas, as stated, and money to help move Ukraine’s economy in the right direction.
4. Ukraine shall be free and independent to take whatever course it chooses to do so, whether Russia approves of it or not.
5. Russia is to remove all its troops from the Ukrainian border.
6. Ukraine shall be free to join the European Union and fully integrate into European society.
7. Ukraine shall be fully free to join NATO, and establish NATO bases in their country.  This applies to the rest of Eastern Europe, including the Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania.
8. Should Russia not approve the #7, then the alternative shall be that Russia will have no military bases within 1600 kilometers of any borders of any European country, including Ukraine.

This is not giving in to appease the Russians, like Neville Chamberlain tried to do with Hitler in 1938.  This will be Russia paying for new territory, reuniting Russians from other countries with their own, but at a price.  If Russia wants these lands, they have to pay for them.  They cannot have them from free, pure and simple.

Here, everybody wins.  Russians will be with Russians under Russian law.  Ukraine will be rid of a peoples who are at present a thorn on their side.  They may lose two provinces, but that isn’t much.  In fact, they are not worth keeping.  Crimea is gone, but Crimea has always been a part of Russia, and was given away by Khrushchev, drunk, back in 1954, against the will of the Crimean people.  They are glad to be back in Russia, and Ukraine will just have to accept that.  Again, it really isn’t worth it.

There you have it.  This is a proposed, permanent solution to Ukraine’s present troubles, and a pathway for their long for freedoms.  It isn’t easy to swallow, but nothing ever is