Vladimir Putin, President of Russia (Dictator, really), has fearlessly taken the ultimate step; amassing troops at the Russian-Ukrainian border. As of this writing, there are 100,000 Russian troops, but sources within the Pentagon expect this to increase to 175,000 troops by next January or February, two months from now.
With that amount of troops, even with Ukrainian soldiers armed at the border ready to meet this oncoming invasion, Ukraine won’t have a chance.
What then?
Putin denies that he is preparing to invade. He just doesn’t want Ukraine to join NATO and have troops on the Russian border, especially in a former Soviet state. From Putin’s point of view, this poses a threat to Russia’s security. That does make perfect sense, but is that the real reason? NATO has never attacked Russia.
This is making the rest of the world nervous. Putin feels he is now invincible and can literally do anything he wants with impunity. In a way, he can. The other world leaders, including President Joe Biden, are afraid of him, and it is obvious. For one thing, Putin has previously stated that he would use nuclear weapons first.
Putin is always justifying his moves by stating that Ukraine has always been a part of Russia. The Russian civilization originated in Kiev (Kyiv) and spread out to present day Russia proper. This is true.
It’s also true that Ukraine was once a part of the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth in the 17th century. It was eventually absorbed in the Russian Empire, where it remained until it became an independent country in 1991 during the Soviet collapse.
This is present day Ukraine, an independent country with its own identity. As it stands, the Ukrainians have a hatred for Russia and doesn’t want anything to do with them. They want to join NATO and become a part of the European Union. They are Slavic, like the Russians, and their languages are similar, but they are still a separate nationality.
Russia took Crimea and backs the separatists in the Donbass region, which is another reason why there is so much resentment.
When the Russian backed Ukrainian President was ousted back in 2014, Putin invaded the Crimea and annexed it. The people in Crimea rejoiced, because all through history, Crimea was always a part of Russia. It was in 1956 that Nikita Khrushchev, then Soviet Premier, gave the Crimea to Ukraine as a gift at a dinner party. It is rumored that Khrushchev was drunk when he performed this action.
From Putin’s point of view, he was taking back something that had always been a part of Russia. It would have been better if Khrushchev never gave away the Crimea in the first place.
In Donbass, there are Russian backed rebels that want their own independent country, with Russia as a powerful ally. Donbass is very small, only the two Ukrainian provinces of Donetsk and Luhansk.
It would be nice to simply let Russia annex this region to keep the peace, except actions like this don’t work. In 1940, Neville Chamberlain, then Prime Minister of Great Britain, gave Hitler permission to annex the Sudetenland, a German region of Czechoslovakia, to appease Hitler. Hitler got his wish, uniting the entire German population of Europe under one rule, but Hitler then wanted more and more land until World War II finally broke out.
If we let Putin invade and annex Ukraine, he will not be satisfied. He will aim at the Baltic states next, and will want to invade them, even with these three states, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, being in both the E.U. and NATO. Putin will be that bold to invade, knowing that nothing will stop him.
There is no way that Putin will be appeased. Ever! Putin wants to revive the old Soviet Union. After that, he will still want more land.
We cannot allow this to happen.
We, the West, being Europe, Canada, and the United States, MUST stand up to Vladimir Putin. NOW!
Yes, Putin has nuclear weapons and a large arsenal of tanks, planes and ships, but we must stand up to him anyway.
Biden and NATO MUST send troops to Ukraine, EVEN IF PUTIN GREATLY OBJECTS.
EVEN IF PUTIN GETS ANGRY AND SCREAMS AND THREATENS THE WEST.
We must stand up to Putin and say to him that if he invades Ukraine, his troops will be met with military action.
Biden did have a video conference with Putin about the crisis, and Biden simply stated that he will impose harsh economic sanctions, worse than ever before, that Russia will find difficult to handle. (Putin can always fall back on China, and he knows this.)
Putin smiled back at Putin during the conference. He is probably laughing at Biden.
Biden has stated that unilateral military action is not on the table. Notice that he said “unilateral.” There’s the rub. The U.S., unlike George W. Bush in Iraq, will not go it alone; nor should they.
What if the U.S. should lead, with the rest of NATO following? Countries like the Baltic states would love to join in, and we have many useful allies like Germany, Britain, France, and perhaps Israel (not a part of NATO, but reliable nonetheless).
What if we have a full international coalition coming into Ukraine and establish military bases, or better yet, align on the Ukrainian border facing Russian troops? Which side would blink? Will Putin think twice? Will Putin back down?
This crisis is the ultimate test not only for Russia, but the U.S., Ukraine, and also Europe
Ukraine is a valuable ally of the U.S. It has been said that because Ukraine is presently not in NATO, that we don’t owe them anything.
I disagree.
Ukraine did send troops to Afghanistan to back the allied cause, and Ukraine badly want to join both NATO and the E.U., and they fiercely oppose Putin. We owe Ukraine the chance, and the backing, to be its own country.
Putin is obsessed with bringing down the U.S. Should the U.S. falter, its standing in the world will be permanently damaged, with our failure to back Ukraine being the final nail in the coffin. The U.S will lose its standing and its position as a world power, and with countries like China threatening us, we will become a backwater country in which no other country will depend.
We cannot afford to allow this to happen.
In the meantime, Putin will be looked upon as a great, and evil power, invincible, and will be able to get what he wants without anybody stopping him. Our present global system of no war to change borders or acquire new land will be set back for decades, and, of course, the U.S. will be powerless to change this.
Putin will be able to destroy NATO by reclaiming the Baltic states, and possibly other Eastern European countries once under Communist rule, without anybody stopping him.
Should the U.S., with or without NATO (preferable with) stand up to Putin, defending and fully freeing Ukraine to join NATO and the E.U., the world will acquire a new, revived respect for the U.S., and for President Biden in particular. Biden will then have one more reason to be reelected, should he decide to run again.
Putin would be looked down upon, and more of the world will stand up to him, and this includes the Russian people themselves.
Ukraine has the potential to become a crossroads for commerce between Europe, Asia, the Middle East, and Russia itself. It could become prosperous as well as a permanent ally and friend of the United States, and the world would greatly benefit from an independent Ukraine, including Russia, even more than if it was an occupied region.
Of course, if Russia invades, they may have a hard time no matter what, even if the U.S. does’t back them. Many soldiers on both sides will be killed as the Russians invade, and there will be guerrilla warfare, with many of these guerrillas coming in from all over the world to fight the Russians as they occupy the country. NATO, being on the border, would sneak arms into the country to supply these fighters, and they would also send in troops to other countries, especially former Soviet states now in NATO. Georgia may even end up joining NATO. Putin will become even more unpopular in Russia, starting with the mothers of the soldiers killed. He will also earn the contempt of the rest of the world, so Putin will have to ask himself if Ukraine is worth all that.
However, it is up to President Biden to see whether Ukraine, in its present form, will live or die.
This is the ultimate test for America on whether it will continue to keep its standing in the world, or whether it will fall. As of the present, the world does not have much faith in the U.S.
What will be the final result?
We must send troops to Ukraine immediately. If possible, we need NATO and other allies to join us, like President George H.W. Bush did in Operation Desert Storm, back in 1991.
We must do this even if Putin has nuclear weapons, because he may think twice before using them.
Putin must realize that Ukraine no longer belongs to Russia, and he simply cannot walk in and take it just because he thinks he can.
Ukraine wants to remain independent and join the rest of the world.
Vladimir Putin needs to stop living in the past!
Alastair Browne
