Book Review: Putin's Kleptocracy - Who Owns Russia? by Karen Dawisha

Karen Dawisha’s book, “Putin’s Kleptocracy:  Who Own’s Russia” is not light reading by any means.  A lot of research has gone into this, and there is a lot to comprehend.  Nevertheless, you will absorb a lot even from just one reading, and what you will find may surprise you.

From reading recent headlines about Putin, occurring the Georgian province of Abkhazia, along with sending troops into Eastern Ukraine and denying it, it is obvious that Putin is not only a tyrant, but a liar, a cheat, and a thief.  He got to where he is today by lying cheating, and stealing.  Most of all, he is evil, and this book presents evidence backing up all of this.

With Putin, this has been a way of life.  Putin started out in the KGB, working as an officer in East Germany for five years during the time of the Soviet Union.  He was chiefly into espionage, stealing weapons designs from industries in the West.  Fifty percent of all Soviet (and now Russian) weapons systems were based on stolen designs.  When East Germany fell, Putin helped to destroy lists of East German informers.

Soon after, Putin become deputy mayor of St. Petersburg, where he took plenty of bribes and kickbacks, until finally, was selected by Boris Yeltsin to become the Russian Prime Minister and soon after, its President.

Putin was not without his critics.  He has been investigated by the FSB (equal to the FBI) and other law enforcement agencies, even indicted, but was never brought up for trial.  Putin always escaped it through his connections, up until the time he became president.  There have also been attempts on his life.

Russia, in the 1990s, was awash with criminal activity and corruption.  When Putin declared as president that he would crack down and put an end to it, what he really meant is that he would make himself the kingpin and collect all the profits.  Russia, at present, is a mafia state, run by Putin and backed up by his cronies, being his now billionaire friends running all the businesses, who will all remain in their place with their billions as long as they remain loyal to Putin, along with ex-KGB officers combined with the Russian Mafia.  It is believed that Putin’s cronies control 35% of Russia’s wealth, much of it in overseas banks, including the United States.

In order to get a clear idea of how Putin runs the country and how he treats his people, I will present a partial list of his doings from being deputy mayor of St. Petersburg in the 1990s up to the present, all of it explained in greater detail in the book.  These are not in any particular order, but it doesn’t matter.

Putin embezzled funds meant to build health clinics all over Russia for a “palace” in Genendzlik.  Putin has many luxurious private dachas and palaces.

In 2005, Putin literally stole a four carat Super Bowl ring from the hand of Robert Kraft, owner of the New England Patriots.  Putin kept it for his own.

He bought and sold companies at low prices and criminally privatized them into the hands of friends.  The Baltic Shipping Company is one example.

Roman Tsepov ran Putin’s tribute system, i.e. money Putin skims for his own pockets, and had high influences in many companies, but overstepped his boundaries when he wanted a share of Yukos oil.  He was poisoned by radiation.

Putin bought a dacha in the Ozero cooperative in 1992, on the banks of Lake Komosomol’skoye, and threatened to burn down the houses of local residents if they did not sell their land.  In other cases, people will be run off their land to make room for a new dacha or palace for Putin.  

When a dacha of Putin’s burned down, the original builders rebuilt it, in better condition, free of charge.  I do not think this was voluntary.

In 1991, deputy mayor Putin, without permission, took money from the St. Petersburg budget, meant to buy food for the starving populace (being 90 Deutschmarks) and bought German meat and had it delivered to the KGB in Moscow.  Putin did not care about the starving populace.

Money and goods meant for food went elsewhere, and Putin and his friends profited, putting the money in offshore (foreign) banks.

The FSB, with Putin’s knowledge, set up bombings of apartments in St. Petersburg, killing innocent people, and putting the blame on the Chechnyans, as an excuse to start another war with Chechnya.  

Oversaw the gambling industry in St. Petersburg, skimming off the profits.

Used unauthorized funds for apartments, cars, luxury items.

Eliminated the business competitors of friends, using KGB methods, and imprisoning many of them, including his own political rivals.

Smuggled rare metals out of Russia.

Putin was in a car on the Moscow-Minsk highway.  The driver (not Putin) drove at high speeds, killing a five year old boy.  The body was removed from the scene and altered, and no one was charged.

In the 2012 reelection for President, Putin destroyed the reputation of his opponents, funded his campaign with stolen money from Gazprom, and massive cheating was done, through false ballots, stuffing boxes with dead people’s names, voter intimidation, correcting votes (changing the votes as ballots were counted), and even burned ballots for other candidates.  The Moscow Times itself stated that Putin would not have won without cheating.

From there, you have the idea of how Russia is governed, and that Putin today is creating as much trouble outside of Russia as he possibly can to see if he can get away with it.  If the world does nothing, he will continue to do so.

Russia is not communist, but it isn’t democratic either.  It is a plutocracy, run by Putin and his very rich friends, all of their wealth stolen from legitimate business and the Russian people themselves.  He is also taking away all of their newly won freedoms, but eliminating elections for local leaders and appointing them instead.  This will only continue.

Russian society is deteriorating.  Health spending and other public services are being cut while Putin and his cronies pocket billions from the Russian treasury.  There is a high mortality rate, low birth rates, except among the Muslim population, and in increase in prostitution, alcoholism, and suicides.

The people who are suffering the most from all this are the Russian people themselves, and they know it.  Putin does occasionally win their support by annexing Crimea, but slowly, they are seeing Putin for what he really is.

Russia is a feudal regime, like it was back in the time of the Tsars.  As long his cronies are loyal to Putin, he can have anything he wants, and that is how Putin keeps in power.  How long this will last is anybody’s guess, but Russia may need another uprising to get rid of all this.  

The author says it best at the end of her book.  In the last paragraph, she states, “The only way for ordinary Russians to avoid state predation is to keep their heads down and believe in fate, or turn into cheerleaders of the system in order to gain insurance and a few crumbs from the table.  Russians have a long history of great contributions to world culture, literature, and the arts.  They deserve better.”

Alastair Browne

The World RIGHT NOW - July 22, 2014

As you can see from the title, I'm going to express my opinion on what's been going on lately in the world.  I base this from what I read in The Wall Street Journal and The New York Times, along with the evening news I watch on television every night.  In writing this, I have no references beside me, and I will express my opinion from what my mind has gathered.

Lately, there are two things on my mind that I would like to spout:  Israel/Palestine in Gaza, and the downing of flight 17 over Ukraine.  I will be short and concise on both issues, so I will try not to make this essay too long.

First, Israel's attack on Gaza.  The Israeli's are attacking Gaza to clean out tunnels full of weapons used to bomb Israel, and in retaliation for the rockets Hamas has been firing into Israel.  How did all this start?  (By "this" I mean the recent bombings.)  When some Palestinian youth decided to kidnap three Jewish teenagers and kill them, execution style.  This angered the Israelis, and in retaliation, some Israeli youths kidnapped a Palestinian youth and burned him alive.  Then Hamas fired rockets into Israel.  Then Israel invaded Gaza.  You know the rest.

Much as the world does not want to admit this, the blame lays with the Palestinian youths who kidnapped the three teenagers and killed them.  Other people are going to get mad, and with Israel, they will not take this lying down.  They are going to retaliate in one form or another.  If those Palestinians youths did not kidnap and kill the three teens, none of this would have happened, and the many people killed since then would still be alive.  Gaza would still be intact.

So my message is simply this.  Palestine:  Quite killing Israelis, and quit firing rockets into Israel.  Israel is going to beat the crap out of you each time, and you will lose more than you will gain.  The Jews aren't going anywhere, and, as you very well know, they are not a people you want to mess with.  If you don't want Israel to bomb your people, don't bomb, or kill them.  It's as simple as that.

I won't leave Israel out, either.  Israel:  Make peace with the Palestinians, and find a way for them to have their own state.  You can start by not building any more settlements on the West Bank.  This angers the Palestinians.  I know you want to push them out completely, but they are not going anywhere, so you better find a way to make peace and give them a state.

Now for Ukraine.  Vladimir Putin is a power hungry dictator who not only wants to have absolute rule over Russia for life, but also want to get back the Soviet Union, starting with Ukraine (and Georgia).  He wants Ukraine in its orbit permanently, and has no regard for what the Ukrainians, or the Western Ukrainians, want.  While Eastern Ukraine was to remain with Russia, Western Ukraine wants to be a part of the European Union.  The only answer I see here is to let both side go the way they want.  Western Ukraine may have to swallow their pride on this.  

Putin needs to respect the will of the (western) Ukrainians and let them go their own merry way, whether he wants them to or not.

Look what happened.  Malaysian Flight 17 was shot down over Ukraine, with a Russian missile with everyone on board killed.  Putin, and Russia know this, but they don't want to take the blame.

Putin, if you cannot face up to what the pro-Russian rebels has done, then you are a coward.  Whenever anyone commits a major sin like that, they blame everyone but themselves.  It's time for Putin and Russia to look at themselves in the mirror.

Besides, Russia is the biggest country in the world, has plenty and land and resources, and can become a prosperous country in its own right if it wanted to, but Putin is holding them back.

Russia, face up to the blame, admit what you did, and respect the will of the Ukrainian people.  Most of all, get rid of Putin.  He is not helping you, nor does he care about you.  He only cares about himself.

Ukraine, try and find a peaceful solution.  We want to have you in the E.U. and NATO, but find a way out of your civil war.  If this means letting Eastern Ukraine go, then so be it.  You will be better off without them.

So ends my ranting for today.  I know this is simplistic, but it is also straight forward and with that, I hope you will all face up the the harsh realities of what really is, and try to take it from here.

Amen!

A Message to the People of Russia

It has come to my attention that many of you have pick up my page, FOUNDATION, and have noticed my posts about Ukraine, among other subjects.

I would like to reach out to all of you, and offer a plea for peace.

First, you have noticed my posts about Ukraine, and their desire to join the west, of at least western Ukraine.  

I am fully aware that the people in eastern Ukraine, or at least in Donetsk and Luhansk are mostly of Russian origin and many want to become part of Russia, or at least ally with them.  In this issue, I support both the East and the West.

I know Crimea was always Russian territory until 1956, when Khrushchev, on a whim, decided to give it to Ukraine as a gift, against the will of the Crimean people.  I know that after all these years, these people wanted to remain Russian and return to Russia’s fold.

I am also aware of the majority of the people in eastern Ukraine, or at least in the two easternmost provinces, also want to return to Russia’s fold, either as part of Russia, or an independent country allied with Russia.

I can sympathized with you, even support your position;  but I also support the people of western Ukraine in their desire to join the West and become a part of the European Union.  We, in the United States and Europe did not encourage them to do so, nor are we encouraging them to shun Russia, your country.  They themselves made this decision, and whether you like it or not, you have to respect them for it.  Each country must respect any desires of a neighboring country, whether the neighboring country likes it or not.  This equally applies to the U.S. in the affairs and both Canada and Mexico.

I also know that Ukraine is a cleft country, and that the eastern Ukrainians are of the Orthodox faith (religion does matter), the same as you, and that they are mostly ethnic Russian and want closer relations with you.  That also has to be respected.

What should be done is simply have a free and fair referendum in Eastern Ukraine, with international observes, for the people to decide for themselves what they want.  They can either vote 1) remain a part of Ukraine;  2) secede from Ukraine and join Russia; or 3) become an independent country, call it East Ukraine and ally with Russia.  Should they decide #2 or #3, fine.  We can live with it.  In return, Russia should let the rest of Ukraine go its own way and compensate Ukraine and its people for the land they’ve forfeited such as debt cancellation and supplying them with free natural gas from Russia for a certain number of years.

All this can, and should be achieved peacefully, with both sides having mutual respect for each other.  Ukraine and the European Union pose no threat to your country whatsoever.

What I am trying to say is that the present situation in Ukraine is not an excuse for your president, Vladimir Putin, to station troops along the Ukrainian border and threaten to invade Ukraine, even if the people of Donetsk and Luhansk desire it.  War, invasion, or any other form of hostile action is not the answer, and isn’t helping your own people any, even if you benefit by uniting the Russian people and acquiring more land.  What Putin is doing isn’t making things better for you, it’s making it worse, and he is aliening all of you from the rest of the world, at great expense to Russia itself.  

Should Putin order an invasion, you will lose more than you’ll gain, even if Russia wins militarily.  What Putin will be doing, in simple terms, is leading your country down the road to perdition, beginning with a deteriorating economy put on by sanctions, and a loss of international standing, and I know you do not want that.

Russia is a great country with a great people, having an amazing history.  Just by itself, without Ukraine, Russia is a giant landmass.  You are the largest country in the world and you have land stretching from eastern Europe all the way to the Bering Strait, along with an abundant amount of natural resources that have yet to be developed.  

If you were to develop all your resources throughout the country, can you imagine how much of an economic powerhouse you would be?  Your country and people would acquire more wealth, your standard of living would greatly increase, and you would provide intense competition for Europe, Japan, the United States, and China, without any need for the military.  Your people have great potential, and you have the ability to achieve a greatness, much more than you have already acquired throughout your entire history.

With all of this, you have no need to acquire any more land or invade any other country, and no other country wants to go to war with you.  In regard to your history, your borders today are safe.  What we all ask is to respect the sovereignty of your neighbors, as you expect them to respect yours.  Equal and mutual respect is the key, and should a problem arise, you should be able to settle it peacefully, without any need for your military.  That is all we ask.

What President Putin is doing right now isn’t helping you or Russia, it’s making your situation worse, and the world is distancing itself from you.  Should President Putin give the order to invade Ukraine, he will only make things worse for your society, and he will lead you and your country down the road to perdition;  in what ways, I don’t know, but it will happen.  What is really sad is that Putin knows this, but he doesn’t seem to care.  It hurts me very much to have to say this.

Is it worth it?  I don’t think so.  Do not allow this to happen.  Do not let Putin become like Adolf Hitler in 1939, when he invaded Poland, and I do dare to say that.  Please stand down and rejoin Europe, and the rest of the world.  I feel that by doing this, we can work together, and get through this crisis by finding a fair and peaceful solution that will be to everyone’s satisfaction.  It is only by achieving a win-win situation that we can have peace and prosperity for all.

Alastair Browne

UKRAINE - Part Four: What Should be Done to End This Crisis, Once and For All (April 15, 2014)

“Ukraine or rather Eastern Ukraine will come back in five, ten, or fifteen years.  Western Ukraine can go to Hell.”

                                                                     -A Russian General  (circa 1995)

And so, Ukraine now has its civil war.  It doesn’t matter what is happening right now, that’s just what it is.  In Eastern Ukraine, Russian-Ukrainian are occupying government buildings, building barricades, begging for Russian troops, now amassed across the border, to come in and invade.  One rumor has it that Russian agents are already in Ukraine instigating these disturbances, where, should the Ukrainian government crack down, Russia will have the perfect excuse to come in and invade to protect the Russian people living there.  Putin will find any excuse to do whatever he wants anyway, and he knows he can get away with it because the rest of the world isn’t doing much to protect Ukraine, save imposing sanctions.  

As of the present moment, the Ukrainian government is cracking down on its dissenters.  Who knows what may happen next.

I have stated, from Samuel Huntington’s book, “A Clash of Civilizations,” that Ukraine is a cleft country.  Western Ukraine is composed mostly of ethnic Ukrainians, who desire to join the European Union and the West in general.  Eastern Ukraine is composed of a mixture of Russians and Ukrainians, with the two easternmost provinces, Luhansk and Donetsk, with a majority Russian population, and a few other cities outside these two provinces, such as Kharkiv, having enough of its Russian populace to stir up some kind of trouble.  However, it is in Luhansk and Donetsk where the major crisis looms.

So there we have it.  Western Ukraine has found its freedom, the two provinces in Eastern Ukraine, Luhansk and Donetsk, are making life difficult for everyone else.

One thing that has to be noted is that many of these Russian Ukrainians do not want to be annexed to Russia.  They want to remain a part of Ukraine, with Ukraine maintain close Russian ties.  In other words, they want all of Ukraine to be Russia’s junior partner, under their full protection;  but it’s not going to be that way.  The Ukrainians want to break out of Russia’s orbit completely, and be free to do as they please;  i.e.  join the European Union, and as long as Putin is in power, NATO as well.

Here is what I propose.

Have Luhansk and Donetsk, and any other Eastern Ukrainian province, hold a referendum.  This referendum is to be completely fair, by secret ballot from each Ukrainian citizen, and to be supervised by international observers, including those from the United States and Europe.

This ballot is to give two choices, and no more.  These choices would be:

1. Have that province secede from Ukraine and join the Russian Federation, living under Russia’s laws and protection henceforth.
2. Remain a part of Ukraine, to live under Ukraine’s laws, and abide by any foreign policy decision Ukraine may make.                                                                

There will be NO federalizing Ukraine or any of its provinces, as Putin proposed, for that would only be to Russia’s advantage.

As a result, should the two renegade provinces, and any other connected to the Russian border vote to join Russia, they will be free to do so.

BUT, there will be a price.  

1. Russia is to cancel all debts owed by Ukraine to the Russian Federation, no exceptions.
2. To help Ukraine, Russia should supply Ukraine natural gas, free of charge, for the next five to seven years to help Ukraine get back on its feet.
3. Russia should compensate Ukraine for the land they sell to Russia (I said sell, not give or forfeit) with natural gas, as stated, and money to help move Ukraine’s economy in the right direction.
4. Ukraine shall be free and independent to take whatever course it chooses to do so, whether Russia approves of it or not.
5. Russia is to remove all its troops from the Ukrainian border.
6. Ukraine shall be free to join the European Union and fully integrate into European society.
7. Ukraine shall be fully free to join NATO, and establish NATO bases in their country.  This applies to the rest of Eastern Europe, including the Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania.
8. Should Russia not approve the #7, then the alternative shall be that Russia will have no military bases within 1600 kilometers of any borders of any European country, including Ukraine.

This is not giving in to appease the Russians, like Neville Chamberlain tried to do with Hitler in 1938.  This will be Russia paying for new territory, reuniting Russians from other countries with their own, but at a price.  If Russia wants these lands, they have to pay for them.  They cannot have them from free, pure and simple.

Here, everybody wins.  Russians will be with Russians under Russian law.  Ukraine will be rid of a peoples who are at present a thorn on their side.  They may lose two provinces, but that isn’t much.  In fact, they are not worth keeping.  Crimea is gone, but Crimea has always been a part of Russia, and was given away by Khrushchev, drunk, back in 1954, against the will of the Crimean people.  They are glad to be back in Russia, and Ukraine will just have to accept that.  Again, it really isn’t worth it.

There you have it.  This is a proposed, permanent solution to Ukraine’s present troubles, and a pathway for their long for freedoms.  It isn’t easy to swallow, but nothing ever is

UKRAINE - Part Three: Vladimir Putin

Russia has Crimea. Russian troops are amassing on the eastern Ukrainian border, and Ukrainian soldiers are digging trenches on the other side, like in the first world war. Meanwhile, the Transdniestr region of Moldova has applied for admission in the Russian Federation. Problem is, they are separated by southern Ukraine. Putin patiently waits for his chance. Ukraine, Europe, and the world are worried.

Putin has stated that he has no interest in either invading eastern Ukraine or annexing any more territory to Russia, but his troops on the border tell a different story. The U.S. and Europe are reacting by imposing economic sanctions on Russia, thereby isolating it. The Ukrainian military has withdrawn from the Crimean peninsula.

Once again, Europe is on the brink of an invasion and possibly a war. Will it happen. What should we do if Putin does invade Ukraine. He claims he is only interested in the eastern and southern parts, since it is Slavic, with a Russian population, and only wants to unite all the Russian peoples. Hitler wanted the same for the Germans.

How are we dealing with all this? By imposing sanctions, and it is hurting the Russian economy, but other than that, not much. We do have fighter jets over the Baltic States, being Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, and performing military maneuvers in Poland, but is that enough? Even though the Russian economy is foundering, Putin doesn’t care.

Will Putin invade? How will we react if he does? What if he gets southeastern Ukraine, and the Transdniestr Region as a bonus, then what? All the Russian people will be united, but will he stop there? Suppose he wants the rest of Ukraine; then the Baltic States, in spite of the fact that they are in NATO and the European Union. We have sworn to protect those three states. What will happen then?

Being a former member of the K.G.B., one fact is certain. Vladimir Putin is a tyrant, and a bully. He’s a dictator with absolute power, and is determined to hang on to it indefinitely. He is also determined to do what he wants, with no regard to what anyone else thinks. Most of all, he doesn’t care. Yes, his official title is President of Russia, with the Kremlin backing him up, but from the time he was appointed by Boris Yeltsin to succeed him, Putin slowly chipped away at Russia’s democratic reforms until he acquire all the power for himself. It may not look like it, but that is where he is now and that is what the rest of the world, especially the U.S., has to confront.

What is happening now, what I’ve just describe, somewhat resembles the beginning of World War II. Hitler united all the German people by taking Austria, the Sudetenland in Czechoslovakia, but then he wanted more. On September 1, 1939, Hitler invaded Poland, and World War II began. We are facing this again today. What is hanging over us now are the Russian troops across from Ukraine. They are not amassing just to practice maneuvers. They definitely have a plan in mind. After Ukraine, Putin will only want more. He will never be satisfied.

Vladimir Putin is no fool. What we are seeing may reflect Hitler, but Putin is more like Joseph Stalin, a lot cooler than Hitler. He sees himself as Peter the Great, but is acting like Joseph Stalin.

After 1991, when the Soviet Union broke up, Russia had the potential of becoming a great democracy and for a while, was on the way of becoming one. If Russia went all the way, and was allowed to prosper economically, they could give China, Europe, and the U.S. a run for their money. Being the biggest country in the world, from eastern Europe to the Bering Strait, Russia has an abundance of oil, minerals, and farmland. By developing its resources, Russia can be a self supporting entity, and an economic powerhouse, rivaling Europe, China, Japan, and the U.S. They do not need any more land from any other country, including Ukraine. (Russia and Ukraine have a long history together, and Ukraine is rich in farming and industry, which is one reason why Russia wants it back.)

As it is, Putin comes into power, removes all democratic freedoms, and as a result, Russian billionaires and other business tycoons have left Russia in droves, depositing all their assets in foreign banks. Economically, Russia is in a mess, and what Putin is doing now is diverting everyone’s attention from that fact. There is also a huge Muslim population that may be getting ready to rebel, again! In addition, Putin is popular whenever something like Crimea happens, but generally, he isn’t, and many want him out, and that number is increasing.

The worst thing about all this is that Putin will set the example for other would-be tyrants to invade, conquer, and start other massive wars. By this, I mean countries like China, North Korea, and Iran, for starters

What do we do about all this? I have a few suggestions here.

Cancel all debts owed by Ukraine to Russia.

Establish NATO bases in eastern Europe, and the Baltic States. Have Ukraine, even Georgia join NATO and establish bases there. Russia has already invades two states in Georgia. It was agreed that no bases would be set up, but as of now, all bets are off.

Set up new oil and gas pipelines, or import both to countries formerly dependent on Russia. Cut off all imports from Russia immediately. I know this may be a slow and difficult process, but there are ways around this.

Should Russia decide to attack, fight back. (Easier said than done, but somebody has to do it.)

Isolate Russia, economically and otherwise. How long will it be until Russia itself collapses? May not be as long as we think.

I am not a warmonger; far from it. When the Soviet Union imploded back in 1991, I was hopeful that they would finally join the western world in peace and prosperity. That hasn’t happened, and is not going to happen as long as Putin remains in office. He must be stood up to, as soon as possible, and hopefully the Russian people may stand up and get rid of him, once and for all. Of all of Russia’s enemies, their biggest enemy is Vladimir Putin himself.

UKRAINE - Part Two: March 16, 2014

As of today, March 16, 2014, there is going to be a referendum in Crimea to either 1) become a part of Russia or 2) become a sovereign “independent” state. Note the quotation marks, meaning Crimea would be a separate country in the throes of Russia. There is no third choice to maintain the status quo. By the time you read this, Crimea, I think, will vote to become a part of Russia, being 60% Russian and a one time state of Russia anyway. I have previously discussed this in my last essay, “Why Ukraine Should Give Up Crimea.” 
I still stand behind what I have said earlier, but this is not how the reality of it is, and I do not support it. What I have had in mind was a referendum, yes, but with a third choice to remain a part of Ukraine, and the majority of the votes of whatever choice would win. This should also be on the approval of all parties involved, and should Crimea revert back to Russia, Russia should give Ukraine something in return for it. i.e., in equal value to the Crimea, as in forgiving all their debts, giving them free natural gas until Ukraine gets back on its feet, letting it go the way of Europe, and having no say in any future decision Ukraine may make concerning their own welfare, up to and including joining NATO. In other words, it should be win-win, and it should be done fair and square.
We are not going to get that from Putin, not in a million years. Putin is a tyrant, on an equal level with Joseph Stalin, and this is not an exaggeration.
I say this because Putin, as of this writing, has amassed troops on Ukraine’s eastern border, and has given thought to intervening in Eastern Ukraine to protect the Russians living there. In other words, there’s a very good chance that Russia will invade Ukraine. How will we, the U.S. and Europe, react? Will there be a new European war, the likes of which we haven’t seen since World War II? By themselves, the Ukrainian army cannot stand against the Russian army, and should the U.S. and Europe get involved, this could lead to a nuclear exchange. Is Putin willing to risk all that? We are seeing how far he will go to get what we wants, which is, the least, the Russian parts of Ukraine, and possibly, Moldova (the Transdniestr Region, the very thin slice of eastern Moldova, populated by Russians), and possibly even northern Kazahstan, in central Asia. If he feels he can get away with it, he will do it, knowing that the U.S. and Europe will scream, but do nothing.
What then, the Baltic states? Latvia does have a Russian minority. Will Putin come in and invade that, despite the fact that the Baltic States are now both part of the European Union and NATO? There are also military exercises being performed in Poland by NATO and U.S. planes are now patrolling the skies of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, with the planes being based in Lithuania.
What must be remembered is that Vladimir Putin is neither crazy nor a madman, and he is definitely nobody’s fool. He is cold and calculating, and he knows precisely what he is doing. He remains in power after 14 years, finding loopholes in the Russian constitution forbidden a President to succeed himself after two terms. He then became Prime Minister, and then President again, but all this time, he pulled the strings. Putin, like Stalin, is very cool.
There is a way to stop him, or make him pay for what he does.
First, Crimea is as good as gone. In this case, it doesn’t matter. It has a Russian majority, wants to be a part of Russia, and should it not be that, it will be a big headache for Ukraine. Ukraine, and the world, may just have to accept that.
Second, I can see two more states in Ukraine becoming part of Russia. These are the easternmost part of Ukraine that MIGHT have a Russian majority, being Luhansk and Donetsk. Should a referendum be held, with international observers, at Ukraine’s consent, and they vote themselves to be part of Russia, then fine, let them go.
Putin and Russia do NOT have the right to invade. We must show this by imposing on them a price, and this price must be high, and I don’t mean just sanctions, either. Have NATO station bases in the eastern European countries and Baltic states that are a part of NATO: Poland, Romania, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, eastern Germany, and so on. Have Ukraine join NATO, and the E.U., and set up NATO bases there, also. Set up NATO bases in Georgia, to prevent Putin from invading it again, like in 2008. Another would be to support any region in Russia itself that want to be independent. If Russia objects, too bad.
Put in more sanctions, freeze Russian assets, cancel any debt to Russia. Let any Russian businessman deposit their assets into a European of American banks. Many have already done this. Put the pressure on Putin. Make him pay. Perhaps the Russian population itself will throw Putin out of office. Perhaps, but perhaps not.
This should be done anyway, and put Ukraine under a mini-Marshall plan to build up its economy, and find ways to import gas and oil from some place other than Russia. Have the rest of Europe get off dependency on Russia for natural gas..
Again, if Putin is to continue his escapade, make him PAY for it, big time.
We all know that Putin wants to rebuild the Soviet empire, and Ukraine has been a vital part of Russia throughout both countries histories. Ukraine has both industry in the east and farming in the west. However, Ukraine has found its own identity, as did the other former Soviet republics. No matter what Russia wants, they will never get them back.
There is that part where Putin wants to unite all the Russian peoples living everywhere in Europe under one roof. Sounds good in theory, and if Russia was willing to do this peacefully, even I would support that. I have often thought that redrawing borders along ethnic lines would be a good way to peace. I am finding out that things do not necessarily work that way. Should Putin get his wish, he will not stop there. He will then want more land. Remember Hitler, uniting all the German peoples?
What is the answer? I don’t know. Hold referendums in certain states, and go along with what the people want. That’s all I can think of for the moment.
As of right now, the troops are amassing, and the world waits.