Saturday, March 15, 2014

UKRAINE - Part Two: March 16, 2014



As of today, March 16, 2014, there is going to be a referendum in Crimea to either 1) become a part of Russia or 2) become a sovereign “independent” state. Note the quotation marks, meaning Crimea would be a separate country in the throes of Russia. There is no third choice to maintain the status quo. By the time you read this, Crimea, I think, will vote to become a part of Russia, being 60% Russian and a one time state of Russia anyway. I have previously discussed this in my last essay, “Why Ukraine Should Give Up Crimea.” 
I still stand behind what I have said earlier, but this is not how the reality of it is, and I do not support it. What I have had in mind was a referendum, yes, but with a third choice to remain a part of Ukraine, and the majority of the votes of whatever choice would win. This should also be on the approval of all parties involved, and should Crimea revert back to Russia, Russia should give Ukraine something in return for it. i.e., in equal value to the Crimea, as in forgiving all their debts, giving them free natural gas until Ukraine gets back on its feet, letting it go the way of Europe, and having no say in any future decision Ukraine may make concerning their own welfare, up to and including joining NATO. In other words, it should be win-win, and it should be done fair and square.
We are not going to get that from Putin, not in a million years. Putin is a tyrant, on an equal level with Joseph Stalin, and this is not an exaggeration.
I say this because Putin, as of this writing, has amassed troops on Ukraine’s eastern border, and has given thought to intervening in Eastern Ukraine to protect the Russians living there. In other words, there’s a very good chance that Russia will invade Ukraine. How will we, the U.S. and Europe, react? Will there be a new European war, the likes of which we haven’t seen since World War II? By themselves, the Ukrainian army cannot stand against the Russian army, and should the U.S. and Europe get involved, this could lead to a nuclear exchange. Is Putin willing to risk all that? We are seeing how far he will go to get what we wants, which is, the least, the Russian parts of Ukraine, and possibly, Moldova (the Transdniestr Region, the very thin slice of eastern Moldova, populated by Russians), and possibly even northern Kazahstan, in central Asia. If he feels he can get away with it, he will do it, knowing that the U.S. and Europe will scream, but do nothing.
What then, the Baltic states? Latvia does have a Russian minority. Will Putin come in and invade that, despite the fact that the Baltic States are now both part of the European Union and NATO? There are also military exercises being performed in Poland by NATO and U.S. planes are now patrolling the skies of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, with the planes being based in Lithuania.
What must be remembered is that Vladimir Putin is neither crazy nor a madman, and he is definitely nobody’s fool. He is cold and calculating, and he knows precisely what he is doing. He remains in power after 14 years, finding loopholes in the Russian constitution forbidden a President to succeed himself after two terms. He then became Prime Minister, and then President again, but all this time, he pulled the strings. Putin, like Stalin, is very cool.
There is a way to stop him, or make him pay for what he does.
First, Crimea is as good as gone. In this case, it doesn’t matter. It has a Russian majority, wants to be a part of Russia, and should it not be that, it will be a big headache for Ukraine. Ukraine, and the world, may just have to accept that.
Second, I can see two more states in Ukraine becoming part of Russia. These are the easternmost part of Ukraine that MIGHT have a Russian majority, being Luhansk and Donetsk. Should a referendum be held, with international observers, at Ukraine’s consent, and they vote themselves to be part of Russia, then fine, let them go.
Putin and Russia do NOT have the right to invade. We must show this by imposing on them a price, and this price must be high, and I don’t mean just sanctions, either. Have NATO station bases in the eastern European countries and Baltic states that are a part of NATO: Poland, Romania, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, eastern Germany, and so on. Have Ukraine join NATO, and the E.U., and set up NATO bases there, also. Set up NATO bases in Georgia, to prevent Putin from invading it again, like in 2008. Another would be to support any region in Russia itself that want to be independent. If Russia objects, too bad.
Put in more sanctions, freeze Russian assets, cancel any debt to Russia. Let any Russian businessman deposit their assets into a European of American banks. Many have already done this. Put the pressure on Putin. Make him pay. Perhaps the Russian population itself will throw Putin out of office. Perhaps, but perhaps not.
This should be done anyway, and put Ukraine under a mini-Marshall plan to build up its economy, and find ways to import gas and oil from some place other than Russia. Have the rest of Europe get off dependency on Russia for natural gas..
Again, if Putin is to continue his escapade, make him PAY for it, big time.
We all know that Putin wants to rebuild the Soviet empire, and Ukraine has been a vital part of Russia throughout both countries histories. Ukraine has both industry in the east and farming in the west. However, Ukraine has found its own identity, as did the other former Soviet republics. No matter what Russia wants, they will never get them back.
There is that part where Putin wants to unite all the Russian peoples living everywhere in Europe under one roof. Sounds good in theory, and if Russia was willing to do this peacefully, even I would support that. I have often thought that redrawing borders along ethnic lines would be a good way to peace. I am finding out that things do not necessarily work that way. Should Putin get his wish, he will not stop there. He will then want more land. Remember Hitler, uniting all the German peoples?
What is the answer? I don’t know. Hold referendums in certain states, and go along with what the people want. That’s all I can think of for the moment.
As of right now, the troops are amassing, and the world waits.

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