UKRAINE - Part Three: Vladimir Putin

Russia has Crimea. Russian troops are amassing on the eastern Ukrainian border, and Ukrainian soldiers are digging trenches on the other side, like in the first world war. Meanwhile, the Transdniestr region of Moldova has applied for admission in the Russian Federation. Problem is, they are separated by southern Ukraine. Putin patiently waits for his chance. Ukraine, Europe, and the world are worried.

Putin has stated that he has no interest in either invading eastern Ukraine or annexing any more territory to Russia, but his troops on the border tell a different story. The U.S. and Europe are reacting by imposing economic sanctions on Russia, thereby isolating it. The Ukrainian military has withdrawn from the Crimean peninsula.

Once again, Europe is on the brink of an invasion and possibly a war. Will it happen. What should we do if Putin does invade Ukraine. He claims he is only interested in the eastern and southern parts, since it is Slavic, with a Russian population, and only wants to unite all the Russian peoples. Hitler wanted the same for the Germans.

How are we dealing with all this? By imposing sanctions, and it is hurting the Russian economy, but other than that, not much. We do have fighter jets over the Baltic States, being Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, and performing military maneuvers in Poland, but is that enough? Even though the Russian economy is foundering, Putin doesn’t care.

Will Putin invade? How will we react if he does? What if he gets southeastern Ukraine, and the Transdniestr Region as a bonus, then what? All the Russian people will be united, but will he stop there? Suppose he wants the rest of Ukraine; then the Baltic States, in spite of the fact that they are in NATO and the European Union. We have sworn to protect those three states. What will happen then?

Being a former member of the K.G.B., one fact is certain. Vladimir Putin is a tyrant, and a bully. He’s a dictator with absolute power, and is determined to hang on to it indefinitely. He is also determined to do what he wants, with no regard to what anyone else thinks. Most of all, he doesn’t care. Yes, his official title is President of Russia, with the Kremlin backing him up, but from the time he was appointed by Boris Yeltsin to succeed him, Putin slowly chipped away at Russia’s democratic reforms until he acquire all the power for himself. It may not look like it, but that is where he is now and that is what the rest of the world, especially the U.S., has to confront.

What is happening now, what I’ve just describe, somewhat resembles the beginning of World War II. Hitler united all the German people by taking Austria, the Sudetenland in Czechoslovakia, but then he wanted more. On September 1, 1939, Hitler invaded Poland, and World War II began. We are facing this again today. What is hanging over us now are the Russian troops across from Ukraine. They are not amassing just to practice maneuvers. They definitely have a plan in mind. After Ukraine, Putin will only want more. He will never be satisfied.

Vladimir Putin is no fool. What we are seeing may reflect Hitler, but Putin is more like Joseph Stalin, a lot cooler than Hitler. He sees himself as Peter the Great, but is acting like Joseph Stalin.

After 1991, when the Soviet Union broke up, Russia had the potential of becoming a great democracy and for a while, was on the way of becoming one. If Russia went all the way, and was allowed to prosper economically, they could give China, Europe, and the U.S. a run for their money. Being the biggest country in the world, from eastern Europe to the Bering Strait, Russia has an abundance of oil, minerals, and farmland. By developing its resources, Russia can be a self supporting entity, and an economic powerhouse, rivaling Europe, China, Japan, and the U.S. They do not need any more land from any other country, including Ukraine. (Russia and Ukraine have a long history together, and Ukraine is rich in farming and industry, which is one reason why Russia wants it back.)

As it is, Putin comes into power, removes all democratic freedoms, and as a result, Russian billionaires and other business tycoons have left Russia in droves, depositing all their assets in foreign banks. Economically, Russia is in a mess, and what Putin is doing now is diverting everyone’s attention from that fact. There is also a huge Muslim population that may be getting ready to rebel, again! In addition, Putin is popular whenever something like Crimea happens, but generally, he isn’t, and many want him out, and that number is increasing.

The worst thing about all this is that Putin will set the example for other would-be tyrants to invade, conquer, and start other massive wars. By this, I mean countries like China, North Korea, and Iran, for starters

What do we do about all this? I have a few suggestions here.

Cancel all debts owed by Ukraine to Russia.

Establish NATO bases in eastern Europe, and the Baltic States. Have Ukraine, even Georgia join NATO and establish bases there. Russia has already invades two states in Georgia. It was agreed that no bases would be set up, but as of now, all bets are off.

Set up new oil and gas pipelines, or import both to countries formerly dependent on Russia. Cut off all imports from Russia immediately. I know this may be a slow and difficult process, but there are ways around this.

Should Russia decide to attack, fight back. (Easier said than done, but somebody has to do it.)

Isolate Russia, economically and otherwise. How long will it be until Russia itself collapses? May not be as long as we think.

I am not a warmonger; far from it. When the Soviet Union imploded back in 1991, I was hopeful that they would finally join the western world in peace and prosperity. That hasn’t happened, and is not going to happen as long as Putin remains in office. He must be stood up to, as soon as possible, and hopefully the Russian people may stand up and get rid of him, once and for all. Of all of Russia’s enemies, their biggest enemy is Vladimir Putin himself.

UKRAINE - Part Two: March 16, 2014

As of today, March 16, 2014, there is going to be a referendum in Crimea to either 1) become a part of Russia or 2) become a sovereign “independent” state. Note the quotation marks, meaning Crimea would be a separate country in the throes of Russia. There is no third choice to maintain the status quo. By the time you read this, Crimea, I think, will vote to become a part of Russia, being 60% Russian and a one time state of Russia anyway. I have previously discussed this in my last essay, “Why Ukraine Should Give Up Crimea.” 
I still stand behind what I have said earlier, but this is not how the reality of it is, and I do not support it. What I have had in mind was a referendum, yes, but with a third choice to remain a part of Ukraine, and the majority of the votes of whatever choice would win. This should also be on the approval of all parties involved, and should Crimea revert back to Russia, Russia should give Ukraine something in return for it. i.e., in equal value to the Crimea, as in forgiving all their debts, giving them free natural gas until Ukraine gets back on its feet, letting it go the way of Europe, and having no say in any future decision Ukraine may make concerning their own welfare, up to and including joining NATO. In other words, it should be win-win, and it should be done fair and square.
We are not going to get that from Putin, not in a million years. Putin is a tyrant, on an equal level with Joseph Stalin, and this is not an exaggeration.
I say this because Putin, as of this writing, has amassed troops on Ukraine’s eastern border, and has given thought to intervening in Eastern Ukraine to protect the Russians living there. In other words, there’s a very good chance that Russia will invade Ukraine. How will we, the U.S. and Europe, react? Will there be a new European war, the likes of which we haven’t seen since World War II? By themselves, the Ukrainian army cannot stand against the Russian army, and should the U.S. and Europe get involved, this could lead to a nuclear exchange. Is Putin willing to risk all that? We are seeing how far he will go to get what we wants, which is, the least, the Russian parts of Ukraine, and possibly, Moldova (the Transdniestr Region, the very thin slice of eastern Moldova, populated by Russians), and possibly even northern Kazahstan, in central Asia. If he feels he can get away with it, he will do it, knowing that the U.S. and Europe will scream, but do nothing.
What then, the Baltic states? Latvia does have a Russian minority. Will Putin come in and invade that, despite the fact that the Baltic States are now both part of the European Union and NATO? There are also military exercises being performed in Poland by NATO and U.S. planes are now patrolling the skies of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, with the planes being based in Lithuania.
What must be remembered is that Vladimir Putin is neither crazy nor a madman, and he is definitely nobody’s fool. He is cold and calculating, and he knows precisely what he is doing. He remains in power after 14 years, finding loopholes in the Russian constitution forbidden a President to succeed himself after two terms. He then became Prime Minister, and then President again, but all this time, he pulled the strings. Putin, like Stalin, is very cool.
There is a way to stop him, or make him pay for what he does.
First, Crimea is as good as gone. In this case, it doesn’t matter. It has a Russian majority, wants to be a part of Russia, and should it not be that, it will be a big headache for Ukraine. Ukraine, and the world, may just have to accept that.
Second, I can see two more states in Ukraine becoming part of Russia. These are the easternmost part of Ukraine that MIGHT have a Russian majority, being Luhansk and Donetsk. Should a referendum be held, with international observers, at Ukraine’s consent, and they vote themselves to be part of Russia, then fine, let them go.
Putin and Russia do NOT have the right to invade. We must show this by imposing on them a price, and this price must be high, and I don’t mean just sanctions, either. Have NATO station bases in the eastern European countries and Baltic states that are a part of NATO: Poland, Romania, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, eastern Germany, and so on. Have Ukraine join NATO, and the E.U., and set up NATO bases there, also. Set up NATO bases in Georgia, to prevent Putin from invading it again, like in 2008. Another would be to support any region in Russia itself that want to be independent. If Russia objects, too bad.
Put in more sanctions, freeze Russian assets, cancel any debt to Russia. Let any Russian businessman deposit their assets into a European of American banks. Many have already done this. Put the pressure on Putin. Make him pay. Perhaps the Russian population itself will throw Putin out of office. Perhaps, but perhaps not.
This should be done anyway, and put Ukraine under a mini-Marshall plan to build up its economy, and find ways to import gas and oil from some place other than Russia. Have the rest of Europe get off dependency on Russia for natural gas..
Again, if Putin is to continue his escapade, make him PAY for it, big time.
We all know that Putin wants to rebuild the Soviet empire, and Ukraine has been a vital part of Russia throughout both countries histories. Ukraine has both industry in the east and farming in the west. However, Ukraine has found its own identity, as did the other former Soviet republics. No matter what Russia wants, they will never get them back.
There is that part where Putin wants to unite all the Russian peoples living everywhere in Europe under one roof. Sounds good in theory, and if Russia was willing to do this peacefully, even I would support that. I have often thought that redrawing borders along ethnic lines would be a good way to peace. I am finding out that things do not necessarily work that way. Should Putin get his wish, he will not stop there. He will then want more land. Remember Hitler, uniting all the German peoples?
What is the answer? I don’t know. Hold referendums in certain states, and go along with what the people want. That’s all I can think of for the moment.
As of right now, the troops are amassing, and the world waits.