“Ukraine, or rather Eastern Ukraine, will come back in five, ten or fifteen years. Western Ukraine can go to Hell!”
The above quote still applies today (2022) as the time it was said.
As it stands, Putin now has over 100,000 troops stationed on Eastern Ukraine’s border.
Biden, at Putin’s request, has had a second phone/video conference with Biden getting bolder, threatening Putin with “decisive action that will include NATO.
Putin’s response was that should Biden even impose severe economic sanctions, diplomatic relations with Russian may be severed.
Biden is getting bolder and Putin is taking this seriously. This is in Biden’s favor, because this may gain more respect for Biden worldwide, including here at home (the U.S.). In defense of Biden, he, as President has had a rough and difficult first year in office, and a first year for any President is always difficult and unpopular.
Putin has stated that he doesn’t want to invade Ukraine, and doesn’t want to acquire more land for Russia. He just doesn’t want NATO at its borders.
This could be true. Throughout its history, Russia has had constant invasions from the Mongols to the German Nazis and as a result, the Russians (Soviets) used Eastern Europe as a buffer zone during the Cold War.
With the Soviet Union gone and Eastern Europe free, NATO has admitted many of these countries, including the Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania.
Obviously, Russia has very must resented this action. They fear that NATO will eventually admit both Ukraine and Georgia, and possibly Moldova (unless it becomes part of Romania, which is already in NATO).
Putin fears missile bases, military exercises, and NATO soldiers and artillery close to the Russian border.
These fears are legitimate, except for the fact that in its 70 year history, NATO has never attacked Russia, and has no desire to do so now. It is Putin, with his troops at the border and threatening Ukraine and demanding that it stays in Russia sphere of influence, that is pushing Ukraine farther to the West, with the desire to join NATO and the European Union. Ukraine wants to be free to do what it chooses, and should have that freedom.
Ukraine has always been a part of Russia, but the Ukrainians are a separate ethnic group and has always wanted their own identity. They also hate Russia.
There is the incident where Russia invaded and annexed Crimea, but Crimea itself is ethnically Russia, always has been. It was only in 1954 that Khrushchev, at a dinner party, and probably drunk, gave Crimea to Ukraine as a gift. It didn’t really matter until the Soviet Union disbanded.
On a map where the Russian troops are located, they are most mostly located in Russia and a small part of Belarus, surrounding Eastern Ukraine, the Russian speaking part, not Western Ukraine. So Ukraine is only halfway surrounded, in a semicircle. In the rest of Ukraine, being Western Ukraine, the border is on the free countries, with a few of them in NATO.
In much of Eastern Ukraine, about 30%, speak Russian. What is unusual is that 49% of Ukrainian backed Viktor Yanakovich in a presidential election held back in 2010, meaning that 19% who backed the Russian candidate were Ukrainian, or some other ethnic group living in Ukraine.
It’s a lot more complex than that. In 1991, in a referendum held for Ukrainian independence from the Soviet Union, 90% of Ukrainians voted for independence, meaning both Russian and Ukrainian speakers.
It should be noted that many Russian speaking Ukrainians are bilingual and do very well speaking either Russian or Ukrainian in Ukrainian society.
Putin has all those troops along the border so he can intimidate Ukraine into giving in to his demands. This is like pointing a gun to someone’s head to rob him.
However, the Ukrainians are not being intimidated. Ukrainian troops , who are well trained, are also massing at the border, with many volunteers also being trained, along with the West sending arms. Ukraine has organized militias composed of professions soldiers and fighters, and they will no doubt kill thousands of Russian soldiers, even after the Russians invade and occupy Ukraine.
Should Russia attack, they will no doubt overwhelm and defeat Ukraine, but it will be a bloody war nonetheless, with many Russian soldiers returning home in coffins. This could end up being a Pyrrhic victory, coming at great cost to Russia.
In addition, the West will slap severe sanctions that will hurt Russia’s economy, and Putin knows this. Along with the cutting off of the new Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline from Russia to Europe, it has been estimated that Russia will lose two thirds of its trade revenues, and this will greatly affect Russian society.
The Russian people, who generally do not support this invasion, will no doubt be angry. Protests and demonstrations will arise, and Putin will lose a lot of his popularity.
This war will be a disaster for Russia, even if they win. Hence the definition of “Pyrrhic victory.”
Russian troops remain at Ukraine’s border nonetheless, and they are threatening regardless. They have their demands, but Ukraine and the West must stand up to Putin and ignore his threats. Biden, to his credit, is doing just that.
There is the Donbass region. After annexing Crimea, Russia supported the Donbass rebels, those wanting to break off from Ukraine and become an independent country, and possibly a client state of Russia.
Donbass consists of the two most eastern provinces of Ukraine, Donetsk and Luhansk. The inhabitants are the Russian speaking majority in these two provinces.
One thing Ukraine can do is to abandon Donbass to Russia and then completely break off from its “sphere of influence” and join both NATO and the European Union, no matter how Putin reacts. For their part, NATO and the E.U. should accept them immediately, and then send in troops and representatives, on the spot.
As stated Ukraine and Georgia should join NATO right away, under the pressure of the United States, if necessary. In Georgia’s case, have U.S. and British warships immediately dock at their ports, and from there, set up military bases.
Should NATO accept Ukraine, they must make a pledge to Russia that NATO will never attack, only defend its territories. It is Putin’s fault that this crisis is happening in the first place, invading Georgia in 2008, Crimea in 2014, along with annexing it, inciting chaos in Donbass, and then sending troops along the Ukrainian border. It is Putin that is threatening war, and we, the West, are only defending ourselves. We should not give in to Putin’s demands but to show him that we, the West, and the world will not tolerate his aggressiveness and his bullying. Putin needs to be dealt with, harshly, and we must show the world that we are not afraid of him.
What Putin and Russia needs to know is that Europe and NATO is not a threat to Russia. Russia is a threat to Europe, and that is why NATO exists. If Russia would simple let Eastern Europe, including the former Soviet Republics go their own merry way without any interference, there would be a need for NATO, thereby being no threat to Russia.
Putin is living in the past, with a desire for the revival of the Soviet Union, and he has not realized that this is a part of history that will never occur again. These countries are now on their own. Putin needs to accept this.
If and when Ukraine is admitted into the European Union, which should be immediately, they, with help from the U.S., should set up a Marshall Plan to not only rebuild Ukraine but make it a commercial cross roads between Europe, Asia, the Middle East, and yes, Russia.
An independent and thriving Ukraine will prove to be an asset to the global economy, as well as a valuable ally to the western world, especially to the U.S.
We must protect Ukraine now from a Russian invasion, even if it is just a threat.
Alastair Browne
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