As I write this, Ukrainian forces are pushing back the Russians, regaining territories, towns, and cities captured by the Russians. The Russians are now concentrating their forces on the Donbass region.
Once and for all, the myth of the invincible Russian Army has been dispelled.
True, U.S. President Joseph Biden and NATO did not send troops into Ukraine, but they did do the next best thing. They sent arms to the Ukrainians, and they are using them to the fullest - shooting down Russian aircraft, destroying tanks and artillery, even Russian warships out at sea, and killing over 15,000 Russian troops, including seven Russian generals.
Of course, Russian missiles and bombers have literally leveled Ukrainian towns and cities to the ground, and have driven out five million refugees, but, like when the Americans bombed North Vietnam for 15 years, none of this has done any good for the Russians.
Should Putin decide to use nuclear and/or chemical warfare on Ukraine, the war may turn in Putin’s favor, but Russia will suffer a consequence beyond anything they can presently imagine. The world will utterly condemn Putin and Russia and this condemnation will last for at least the rest of the century.
The Russians, all Russians, will be labeled bad people; a label that may extend even beyond the Nazis.
As it is, Russia may have no choice but to end the war, but they also want to save face and look as it they won, or at least achieve their ends by getting some Ukrainian land.
At present (April 4, 2022), they are leaving the Kyiv region. This is sensible because they were never able to capture Kyiv, and they are restating their mission, a la Orwell’s 1984. They have stated that their only goal was to “liberate” Eastern Ukraine, or at least the Donbass region.
Ten years ago, I would have thought that they was a good idea.
A Russian general once said, quoted in Samuel Huntington’s The Clash of Civilizations, “Ukraine or rather Eastern Ukraine, will come back in five, ten, or fifteen years. Western Ukraine can go to Hell.”
Ukraine is a cleft country, with pure ethnic Ukrainians in the West, being Catholic, and Eastern Ukraine, being Orthodox and Russian speaking. Back then, it would have made perfect sense for Eastern Ukraine to rejoin Russia, at their approval, being the majority in the region.
I would have had no problem with that, then!
Today, with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, ALL of Ukraine, the game has changed, even beyond Putin’s expectations. This proposal is still on the table, “dividing Ukraine like Korea.”
This is no longer an issue, because even in Eastern Ukraine, the Russian Ukrainians have suffered from the invasion just as much as the Western Ukrainians, and both sides have teamed up to both drive the Russians out and have a permanently united Ukraine.
Putin has united Ukraine like never before, and ALL Ukrainians are fiercely fighting the Russians.
This proposal is now dead in the water - NO part of Ukraine must rejoin Russia.
There is the Donbass region. There are Russian separatists there, supported by Russia since 2014, when Russia annexed Crimea from Ukraine.
I’ve previously thought of having Ukraine letting Russia annex it, to save Ukraine a lot of trouble, but a friend of mine stated the alternative. Take these Separatists and show them the Russian border, which they can cross, leaving all of Donbass to Ukraine. I am now supportive of this proposal. The families of these separatists have already crossed into Russia, and the Separatists can simply rejoin their families…in Russia.
That takes Donbass off the table.
There is Crimea, but that is in a unique position, and I consider Crimea a separate entity from both Ukraine and Russia.
Crimea has always been a part of Russia, at least since the 16th century.
It was in 1954, when both Russia and Ukraine were a part of the Soviet Union, that Premier Khrushchev, at a function and probably drunk, where he decided to give Crimea to Ukraine on a whim.
Back then, it didn’t really matter, until 1991, when the Soviet Union broke up into the 15 states they are today.
It was in 2014, after the Presidential election in Ukraine, when Putin’s candidate lost, where Putin, in his anger, decided to invade Crimea and annex it - back to Russia.
In other words, he simply took it back. It would have been better if Khrushchev never gave it away in the first place.
There is a Russian Naval Base in Sevastopol, and many, probably most, Crimeans rejoiced upon being a part of Russia again.
According to the Census, the ethnic composition is as follows: Russians: 1.49 million (65.3%), Ukrainians: 0.35 million (15.1%), Crimean Tatars: 0.24 million (12.0%).
It has been stated that the Crimean Tartars prefer to be a part of Ukraine, but that is still 27.1% Ukrainian versus 65.3% Russian. If a referendum was held, was international observers, on whether to rejoin Ukraine, stay in Russia, or become independent, the vast majority would vote to stay in Russia.
What’s to be done? A referendum, a conference, or should Russia give Ukraine some compensation (this could be wishful thinking).
The final issue for the fate of Ukraine is whether is should be neutral, like Finland and Sweden after World War II.
Volodymyr Zelensky has said that he is will to settle for neutrality, but I disagree.
Sweden and Finland are now opting to join NATO after Russia invaded Ukraine.
I feel that Ukraine, after the was, should now be entitled to join NATO, regardless of how Putin and Russia feels.
NATO originally did not want Ukraine to join, but the was has changed that. Ukraine by not being in NATO was one reason why it was invaded, with Putin thinking that it would be an easy target. Biden and NATO also stated that they would not send in troops, although they did send weapons, being the next best thing.
Now Ukraine, with their soldiers and citizens have fought bravely, is worthy to join NATO right away, and they would not only protect Ukraine from further invasions, but also make NATO more powerful.
The main reason is to insure that Russian never again invade, or even take more land from Ukraine.
Ukraine should also have immediate admission to the European Union.
In order to rebuild Ukraine, there will have to be a Marshall Plan, where various governments, corporations, and individuals, Russians included, would be willing to participate.
A prosperous Ukraine in both NATO and the E.U. would be no threat to Russia whatsoever. Russia has never been invaded by NATO and never would be, even if NATO was on Russia’s borders.
NATO has never been a threat to Russia in the past. The reason why NATO existed was because Russia was a threat to Europe, and Europe had to be protected. It still does.
If Russia was not a threat to Europe, there would be no need for NATO to exist.
If only Russia would realize this.
Before Putin, Russia was slowly becoming a fledging democracy. Let’s hope that after Putin’s reign is over, it can be so again.
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